Roadmap insights
Technology metal data needs
- More data on metals in ores, products and waste
- Data on CE eco-design options
- Global and national flows of metals
Technology change
- Promote CE design for recycle
- Cheaper low carbon energy available widely
- Hydrogen economy?
- New battery chemistries and designs
Policy change
- UK needs to act fast on Critical Raw materials
- Secure more tech metal sources – open new mines, promote re-use
- ESG and foot-printing
- Zero waste
Social & economic
- Create more CE focused skilled jobs
- Will the market adjust to CE models fast enough?
- Product (environmental and social) foot-printing
- Behavioural shift to service model (not ownership)
UK’s goals 2050
- Critical Minerals Strategy in UK
- Electric vehicles (no new ICEs)
- Off-shore wind power
- Tech metals circular economy in UK, with international links
- Net zero 2050
Key insights
The key insights determined through our roadmapping process are as follows:
The circular economy covers the whole value chain, from the first stages of geological exploration for primary raw materials through to final recycling. This inclusive approach used in Met4Tech is different from the more common use of the CE term to apply to the reverse loop additions to the linear economy.
This more holistic view is essential though, firstly because we need to bring more LIB materials into circulation rapidly from primary sources and need effective ways to ensure good materials stewardship through the whole value chain and secondly because it is the forward loop, i.e. the ‘inbound actions’ in production, manufacturing and distribution that set up the good reverse loops in a mature CE.
#01
The development, evaluation and prioritisation of new CE business models and levers (technical innovations and regulatory interventions) requires good data but such data are not yet readily available. Moreover, given the potential synergies of the various CE levers, only a comprehensive multi-period modelling approach can enable quantification of even the rough order of magnitude of combined implementation of CE-levers.
#02
The simple insight that we export most of the cars that we make in the UK and import most of the cars that we drive has important implications for CE. There is no chance for a simple, insular-to-the-UK CE. Since Europe is the largest export destination, UK manufacturers will need to comply with European regulations.
Eco-design implemented by UK manufacturers will mainly benefit overseas economies. Placing UK-only regulations on incoming vehicles might reduce choice and increase cost for UK customers. International collaboration is essential.
#03
There are many ways of recycling. It is not just the per centage of material that is recycled that is important but maintaining the highest value and resource efficiency using actions such as disassembly, re-use and remanufacturing of components where possible and also short loop recycling to produce compounds rather than going right back to individual elements. Manufacturing that gets LIBs ready for recycling is crucial, enabling separation of components and recovery of materials.
Passport-style information on what LIBs contain is essential to facilitate all recycling and also key is good software and analysis to determine the best future for each LIB before it is recycled, and send it to second life storage or the most appropriate recycling process.
#04
CE interventions to use less material in the first place, to make more efficient use of materials, and to maintain the materials at their highest value are important, but harder to implement than recycling and thus less likely to reduce materials demand in the short term but are important areas for research and development and for consideration in the company’s sustainability (materiality) assessments.
Legislation rarely goes to the material level. Most legislation relates to the product and who ever puts the product on the market. EPR for example, applies to the whole product so a LIB might meet EPR requirements without conserving any of the LIB critical materials.
#05
The management of complex trade-offs is challenging but essential to determine the compound impact on resource productivity gains.
Assessing the potential for longer life versus recovery of valuable materials for recycling for example needs a digital solution but can be done, as in our featured case study of Circunomics in Germany.
#06
The complexity of battery chemistry and the likely rapid changes in chemistry are essential to reflect in any modelling approach and commercial recyclers must be agile and ready for this. Changes in composition have an immediate impact on the build-up of stock over time and also the upstream demand for materials. These materials determine a large share of the cost of EV LIBs.
#07
Car manufacturing in very much an international activity. Manufacturers in the UK already need to comply with EU regulations for EVs placed on the European market because the major market for their cars is there.
Further UK legislation regarding recycled content of LIBs, especially if the figures are different, may not be helpful.
#08
UK-produced lithium might be in oversupply during the period to 2050, based on the proposed outputs from primary extraction and refining of imported materials.
This would be an opportunity for export and resource diplomacy that might help secure other LIB raw materials.
#09
Responsible research and innovation are important at all stages of RD&I to check for unintended consequences. These could be foreseen for LIB materials, such as functional LIBs being taken out of use and recycled to meet recycling targets. For primary raw materials we implemented the UNRMS.
#10
Despite its importance in city planning, encouraging more people to change from private vehicles to public transport / walking / cycling is less important for reduction of materials use because of the large magnitude of change needed to make an impact. The UK Climate Change Committee model that only 7% of journeys will be made by public transport by 2050.
If the number of EVs on the road is unlikely to decrease, using vehicle to grid technology so that EVs service both mobility and energy storage is a good potential solution to increase the intensity of LIB materials use in the EV fleet, and prevent additional LIB materials being needed for energy storage.
Key provisional (not yet peer-reviewed) results from the ABM (Agent-based Model) show different potential materials and GHG savings from CE actions (Mohan et al., 2025. Met4Tech Theme 4 team):
- Reducing use by changing to public transport, including buses with LFP LIBs, moving from 4% of vehicles are buses with 96% cars in 2025 to 80% cars and 20% buses (LIB is 4x larger in a bus, one bus removes 30 cars from the road) by 2035 brings cumulative materials savings of Li - 13% and Co - 15% by 2050.
- Extending LIB life from 15 to 20 years gives about 10% cumulative savings in Li and Co use by 2050.
- Remanufacturing 10% of LIBs from 2025 with no other interventions brings materials savings after 2046 and then reduces cumulative Li and Co use by 30% by 2050 and GHG emissions by 4.7%.
- Recycling so that LIBs are made with the EU required contents of recycled materials, (which are Li - 6% and Co - 16% by Aug 2031 and Li - 12% and Co - 26% by 2036), brings materials savings of Li - 19% and Co - 28% and GHG emissions savings of 29% by 2050. To achieve this level of recycling, in the UK, companies would need to have a combined average annual capacity of Li - 2500t and Co - 3500t.
Additional insights on the roadmapping process and whole systems transitions for the circular economy were also collected through a collaborative activity conducted across the NICER Programme through a series of monthly webinars organised and hosted by Met4Tech (January to May 2024) where researchers from the NICER CE-Hub and five UKRI Centres presented their approaches to roadmaps and shared the initial findings (Pettit and Wall, 20251).
1. NICER Insights report: Roadmaps and Whole System Transitions. Insights and evidence from the NICER Programme. Carol Pettit and Frances Wall. Met4Tech, University of Exeter. https://ce-hub.org/knowledge-hub/roadmaps-and-whole-system-transitions/
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